by Vinkeles Melchers NVS, Stolk WA, Murdoch ME, Pedrique B, Kloek M, et al. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2021;15(6):e0009489. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009489
Summary: As well as being the second most common infectious cause of blindness worldwide, onchocerciasis (river blindness) also leads to serious skin conditions. The authors developed a novel disease framework within the established ONCHOSIM model to predict the impact on onchocercal morbidity of ongoing large-scale interventions to control and eliminate the disease in Africa. They predict the trends in a wide spectrum of skin and eye disease due to onchocerciasis after up to 30 years of annual mass drug administration with ivermectin and predict a rapid reduction in the prevalence of acute conditions with a slower decline in the prevalence of chronic manifestations. Such predictions are essential for accurate estimates of disability-adjusted life years lost due to onchocerciasis by 2025.